Predicting sales in FMCG

Introduction

In the fast-paced world of Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), especially in the beverage industry, accurate demand forecasting is crucial. Companies must anticipate what they'll sell in the coming months to avoid being out of stock, reduce excess inventory and align production with real market needs.

Tilect stepped in with its proprietary Thales algorithm, built specifically to deliver high-precision sales forecasts and give companies full control over their operations and strategic KPIs.

The Challenge

FMCG companies with complex product portfolios and multiple sales channels face recurring challenges:

Uncertainty around future product demand:

• Difficulty aligning production and procurement cycles

• Excess inventory or stock shortages

• Low visibility into strategic planning metrics

• Disconnected sales, supply chain, and procurement teams

To solve this, the company needed a system that could accurately predict future sales and help them make smarter, data-driven decisions.

The Solution

Thales Forecasting Engine by Tilect

Tilect deployed Thales, its AI-powered forecasting engine tailored for SKU-level adaptability. The algorithm is built to:

• Learn from historical sales and external factors

• Generate adaptive, SKU-specific forecasts

• Provide reliable forecasts up to 12 months ahead

• Automatically retrain and refine itself as new data flows in

Unlike static forecasting models, Thales evolves with your business and adjusts to market dynamics in real time.

Results

Over a 6-month pilot in the FMCG beverage sector, Thales delivered impressive results:

• 93% accuracy in total sales forecast, less than 7% deviation between predicted and actual sales

• Forecast confidence maintained across a 12-month horizon, ranging from 84% to 96% accuracy

• Granular forecasting enabled per SKU

These results gave the company clarity and confidence to plan ahead and make impactful strategic decisions.

Business Impact

Keywords: sales forecasting FMCG, demand forecasting beverages, AI forecast algorithm, Tilect Thales, inventory optimization, SKU-level forecasting, reduce stock costs, strategic KPIs FMCG, AI in supply chain, predictive analytics FMCG

The implementation of Tilect’s Thales algorithm led to measurable improvements across operations and planning:

• ✅ Reduced inventory costs with smarter stock allocation

• ✅ Better supplier negotiations with more predictable demand

• ✅ Tighter alignment across departments (sales, logistics, production)

• ✅ Improved control over strategic KPIs like sell-through, availability and margin

The forecasting engine became a core component of the client’s decision-making process.

Built for the decisions of tomorrow.

And we are already here.